Kansas Harvest Begins, Earliest In 30 Years

By Theresa Seiler
Corn harvest began in south-central Kansas during the first full week of August. I am talking about combining corn that is dry enough to deliver to the local ethanol plant or co-op, not high-moisture corn for a feedlot or silage. It is the earliest I ever remember harvest starting in my 30-plus years on the farm.

However, all farmers have one similar goal to make a profit to provide for their families. Accomplishing that requires knowing the cost of production and marketing when profitable prices are available.

Conditions influencing price levels include wars, European drought, heat in China and tariffs. Depending on the current news, those can be either bullish or bearish. Adding to U.S. farmer uncertainty is the fact that the last farm bill which was signed into law in December 2018, has been extended multiple times since expiring in September 2023.

Currently, members of Congress are back in their home states holding town hall meetings and campaigning for the mid-term elections. Contact your members of Congress, make your voice heard.

Corn
Growing conditions in much of the corn belt have been good this year. With rumors of old crop corn still in bins across the country, the market could find a bottom in August like it has eight of the last ten years. December corn futures have been in a narrow trading range from $4.17 to $4.62 since October 2023. However, 2025-2026 corn exports are on pace to exceed USDA’s forecast for a record 3.325 billion bushels.

Soybeans
As much of the crop is in the critical phases of pod-setting and pod-filling, the forecast is cooler and wetter for much of the Midwest. Favorable weather makes the potential for a near record harvest more likely. To date, 2025-26 U.S. export commitments total 1.53 billion bushels, above USDA’s forecast of 1.52 billion bushels for the year. November soybean futures were $2 higher in July this year ($12.54) than last year ($10.24).

Wheat
U.S. planted acres (42.7 M acres) are the lowest on record (since 1919). Following a late freeze in some growing areas and continued drought conditions across much of the Plains, the winter wheat harvest (990.5 M bushels) is the smallest since 1963. Those conditions combined with uncertainty in other wheat growing areas of the world have July Kansas City wheat between $7.28 and $7.56 for the next three years. Similarly, July Chicago wheat futures are within a dime of $7 for the same period.

Corn, soybeans and wheat hit 10-year market highs in April or May 2022 (20-year highs for soybeans and wheat). Did you make sales for your operation during those peaks? Or did you watch the market go up just so you could watch it go back down? My best sales typically happen in the overnight hours of trading.

That is partly due to the futures market often hitting highs overnight that are not seen the following day. It is also due to removing the emotion of the sale as the futures move up and down throughout the day.

As prices improve in each grain, it is important to watch future years for pricing opportunities. Often, prices are higher 12 to 18 months prior to harvest, offering good cash sales at harvest to keep your cash flow positive.

Know your cost of production. Put in offers with your grain buyers. Make more sales as the market moves up.