Unpredictability Plays Outsize Role In Markets

By Jeff Rose
The Iran war has had major impacts on all markets, including the cattle market. And the strike at JBS’s Greeley, Colorado, plant is over for now, with no new agreement reached.

The border is closed to Mexican feeder cattle because of the New World ScrewWorm, but the USDA has made plans for a staggered re-opening in the near future. Oh, and bird flu is still a thing.

If that’s not enough uncertainty for you, there is still a war in Ukraine, and Trump still has two years left in his term. I think our convention speaker said it well, like him or not, he is aggressive.

So, how will all this affect our markets? Supplies will remain short, but packer margins have improved and were positive for a couple of days in early April. Margins are better for two reasons: decreased slaughter capacity due to the closing of JBS Greeley has made all the other plants total kill at closer to capacity.

Also, meat prices are up due to supply worries and good demand. As always, many factors influence demand, with the economy being key. Energy prices were moving in the right direction, but now, with the Strait of Hormuz being disrupted, oil prices are on the rise. I believe demand can stay strong if oil and gas prices moderate into the summer.

Feeder cattle prices are at record levels but could moderate if the border opens soon. At least one major feedlot in the southwest has closed because of the lack of Mexican feeder cattle. So, when the border does open, that is one less buyer competing for them.
Most of the live cattle futures charts have closed the gaps left in mid-October 2025 after Trump’s beef price comments turned the market bearish. Cattle feeders have a lot of capital invested right now.
Please keep an eye on your breakeven and be looking for opportunities to lock in profits on at least some of your production.

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